In recent weeks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has seen a striking reversal in his political fortunes. After the devastating Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which was the deadliest assault on Israelis since the Holocaust, Netanyahu’s popularity plummeted. Opinion polls showed his Likud party losing ground significantly. His government, formed on a fragile coalition in late 2022, appeared on the brink of collapse. However, fast-forward to late 2024, and the story has taken an unexpected turn.
The Assassination Campaign: Key to Netanyahu's Resurgence
Netanyahu’s political recovery is largely credited to an aggressive military campaign against Israel’s enemies across the Middle East. This surge in action, including high-profile assassinations of key figures in Hezbollah and Hamas, has significantly bolstered his standing at home. Polls from Israel’s Channel 12 now show Likud regaining ground, with a potential 25 seats if elections were held today, up from the grim 17-seat prediction just a year ago.
The killing of figures such as Hezbollah's Fu'ad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas' Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has fed into a national narrative of strength and security, themes that Netanyahu has long aligned himself with. For many Israelis, these strikes reinforce the image of Netanyahu as the ultimate defender of the nation.
Why This Military Strategy Resonates
For Israeli voters, the distinction between the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the assassinations in other regions is crucial. While the Gaza war is complex and tied to deeply rooted issues of occupation and Palestinian relations, the strikes against Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in other countries are seen as clear-cut victories. These assassinations, for Netanyahu’s supporters, represent unambiguous triumphs against Israel’s foes, helping restore the image of a strong leader.
Pollsters have pointed out that these actions have shifted the conversation from the government’s failings in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attack to one of military success and security. The public seems more focused on these victories rather than the intricate and politically sensitive issues of the Gaza conflict.
Netanyahu's Political Future: Cautious Optimism
Despite his recent surge, Netanyahu is not entirely out of the woods yet. The government’s long-term prospects still hinge on several critical factors, including the continued public perception of the Gaza conflict and the status of the hostages still held by Hamas. Additionally, while Netanyahu may be riding high on the wave of these recent military victories, it remains to be seen whether this momentum can be sustained in the lead-up to future elections.
Yet for now, Netanyahu’s narrative as “Mister Security” seems stronger than ever. His ability to use Israel’s military might to reshape his political image shows his deep understanding of Israeli public sentiment, particularly around issues of national security.
Conclusion: Can Netanyahu Maintain the Wave?
In a political landscape as volatile as Israel’s, nothing is certain. Netanyahu’s current upswing in popularity is a direct result of calculated military moves that resonate with a public eager for security. But with the war in Gaza continuing and internal tensions simmering, the coming months will determine if this wave of euphoria over his assassination campaign is enough to secure his long-term political survival.
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